Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on several occasions last week that he is cautiously optimistic that the United States will not fall back into a "double dip" recession.

During a dinner in Washington on Monday hosted by the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Bernanke said that consumer spending and private sector investments should allow the economy to continue to moderately improve.

"We’ve seen consumers coming back," he said. "We’ve seen firms spending more. There are some signs the private sector is picking up the baton and moving the economy forward."

Banking Sector "Not Completely Healthy"

Bernanke pointed to numerous signs of improvement in the economy, but cautioned that improvement in the vital housing sector has been shallow and remains vulnerable.

Bernanke also noted that the banking sector is "not completely healthy" and that the level of economic growth is not strong enough to put a dent in the nation's high unemployment rate, which now stands at 9.7 percent.

Two days later, Bernanke told the House Budget Committee that the economy is in a moderate recovery and should continue growing through next year, but that the unemployment rate will likely remain higher than usual, and that it will take “a significant amount of time” to replace the jobs that have been lost in the recession.

Economy Should Grow 3.5 Percent This Year

Bernanke said that he expects the economy to grow in the range of 3.5 percent this year, and faster next year as stimulus spending by the government gives way to business and consumer demand for goods and services.

“This pace of growth, were it to be realized, would probably be associated with only a slow reduction in the unemployment rate over time. In this environment, inflation is likely to remain subdued,” Bernanke said. He added, “In all likelihood, however, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the nearly 8.5 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009.”

Bernanke said that a continued increase in consumer spending and business investment should make up for a fading government stimulus in lifting the economy.

Consumer Spending a "Key Engine of Growth"

But he cautioned that consumer spending, a key engine of growth for the economy, is likely to grow at a moderate pace due to persistently high joblessness and tight lending. Last month, the private sector created only 41,000 jobs.

Still, private-sector employment is growing, despite May's disappointing numbers. After hitting an 11-year low in December, the private sector has added an average of 99,000 jobs a month -- just about enough jobs to keep up with the natural increase in the labor force but not enough to reduce unemployment.

Also last week, the Federal Reserve issued its most upbeat "Beige Book" -- its periodic survey of regional economic conditions -- in more than two years. Economic activity continued to improve since the last report across all twelve Federal Reserve Districts, although many Districts described the pace of growth as "modest."

The Beige Book survey from the Fed's Richmond District, which comprises Maryland, the District of Columbia, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina and most of West Virginia, showed mixed results, with encouraging signs in the labor markets and among businesses, but some weakening in housing markets.